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The Inevitability of Incomplete Information

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Being a leader means making decisions. However, as any leader can tell you, rarely do you have every piece of desired data before a decision must be made. Instead, leaders must be comfortable synthesizing the data that they do have, analyzing it, and conceptualizing what would happen if they pursued various options. Put differently, they must be able to draw conclusions even when information is incomplete.

If this is a situation that every leader encounters, it is helpful to think about how to navigate the circumstance more successfully. Here are three things a leader should do:

  • Have a process for analyzing information – When a decision needs to be made, often there will be a deluge of information and opinions that are proffered with the goal of helping to make the decision-making process easier. However, even within the outpour, a leader knows the information will likely be inconclusive. Therefore, they need a process for analyzing the data – for determining what information is most critical to the decision at hand, and for evaluating contrasting opinions against each other. This may be a pros and cons list; or a leader may choose to use a more robust framework. Regardless of the process, having one that is time-tested and that the leader familiar with will be useful as they navigate uncertain circumstances.
  • Have trusted advisors – The Bible tells us that there is wisdom in seeking outside counsel (Prov. 11:14). However, just like every piece of information doesn’t have equal value, a leader needs to know that every person’s perspective may not be equally as helpful. A leader needs to know whose opinion they trust before a critical decision needs to be made. In an organizational context, it is helpful to have both internal and external counselors. The people within the organization will more easily understand the team dynamics and personalities. However, individuals from outside the organization can often offer insight that internal personnel are just too close to see. Rarely does a leader have to make a decision immediately (although it does happen). When they can, they should seek others’ wise perspectives on the problem.
  • Be prepared to make adjustments – Most decisions are not final, in the sense that as they are being executed, leaders can make adjustments as they learn new information. It is helpful to go into the decision-making process with the mindset that “we will make the best decision that we can with the information we have available, and we will make changes as needed.” If you know that your plan may need to be modified as new conditions emerge, you are likely to be more willing to look for the data that may call for an adjustment. In other words, when you don’t go into a decision prepared to make adjustments, there is tendency to rigidly hold to that decision even when circumstances indicate otherwise. A leader can’t know everything before they have to act – and they have to be comfortable with making adjustments along the way or they will likely never act at all.

One of the challenges that every leader faces is knowing whether they have made the right decision in a critical context. The truth is, because we can’t go back and relive the past, we may never know how making a different decision may have changed our course. It is easy to question our decisions as new information is learned, and while every leader may do this to some extent (and there is something to be said about learning from the past to better plan for the future), implementing the three principles above can prepare leaders to deal with the inevitability of incomplete information, and to make the best decision that they can for their team.

 

 

 

 

 

Dr. Natalie Winter
Professor
Dr. Robert K. Jabs School of Business
www.linkedin.com/in/nataliecwinter


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